So, I’ve been in Jordan for the last month and am just now getting my project into some sort of shape so that we can implement the damn thing. It is called remote management and it is a pain in the ass. I’m talking to people I don’t know, have never seen, may never see, and I am asking them to do things that I can’t even begin to communicate to people in the same room, yet I need to explain this fairly complex program with emails and over an inconsistent cell phone connection. You can imagine how well this sort of thing works: I leave clear instructions, by email and phone, and expect what I’ve asked to be done to happen. Then I don’t hear anything for a day or two so I call and the guy says, “Oh, I’ve been waiting for your instructions.” So, I send him the email, again, the one where I laid out clear instructions before and…well, you get the idea. The guys who work for us in Iraq know that they can claim “security” for any delay and there is absolutely nothing we can do about it.
But I didn’t write to tell about my headaches. I’m writing today to talk about the true horror of Iraq. Despite all the press, and lack there of, about the bus bombs and the EFPs and the mortar rounds landing in the green zone and all the rest, the real tragedy of Iraq is astonishingly simple. To wit: anyone can go to their local weapons market, there are dozens in Baghdad along, purchase a handgun and a few bullets for well under $30. With this weapon, a person can then go any place, even a busy street in the middle of the day and shoot any other person in broad daylight and there will be NO official consequences. NOTHING. You can shoot someone, fire a few rounds in the air while you run away through a back alley or a few streets over and NOTHING will happen to you. No police will take a report, no investigators will follow up and arrest you, no judge will arraign you, no jury will be empanelled, no prosecution, no defense, no verdict, no jail.
For those wondering what is actually happening in Iraq and why this civil will continue for a LONG time, you must understand that the entire apparatus of civil and criminal law is completely broken down. I know people love to quote Shakespeare: “The first thing we do, we kill all the lawyers.” But that was spoken by a despot who wanted to rule without interference from people who make their living making sure that the law is properly applied. If you don’t like lawyers, if you want a society without them, go to Iraq and see how well it works. Not many lawyers working there.
So no official consequences, that is true, but it is not the end. Some one will see. That person may report it, not to the police, of course, but to a neighbor, or a militiaman or to a mullah or to a relative. And they might make a proper identification. Or, as happens so often in real life, the “eye witness” may turn out to be mistaken and report the name of the wrong person. Or could, for reason of their own, lie about who they saw to the family. Then comes the retaliation. Another murder, another fleeing perp, another set of witnesses, another identification…and the cycle continues.
Mind you, the legal system is just one problem. There are dozens of other systems, all of which are in some state of breakdown. For starters, there’s the electric system. The generating capacity of Baghdad was placed well out of town; in the event of an uprising in the city, Saddam wanted to be able to shut off the whole city. Well, now the places that generate power are pulling off the grid, leaving the city of Baghdad with only a few hours of power per day. And these systems are not just turned on and off with the flick of a switch, either. Electricity is used everywhere. No power means no water pumps or filters, no communications, no medical devices, no machine tools, air conditioning, etc. so electrical failure leads to a cascade effect, cutting out many other services in the wake of a shutdown. Once THESE systems go down, the problems multiply through the network effect. Water backs up through pipes, fouling filters and popping gaskets; buildings and other machines overheat, but the lack of security means maintenance can no longer be done on the water system or the communications system or the health system or the tax collecting system, or the transport system, or the sewage system, or the education system…you get the idea.
I don't mean to downplay Saddam's part in this. Many of these systems, due to the trade embargo, were on their last legs before Mr. Bush’s war. But left at peace, Iraq would have ultimately recovered even from Saddam's tyranny. I wonder how they will recover from this because the systems mentioned above, their design, construction, operation, maintenance and funding, are the result of and play the crucial role in supporting what we call civilization. And here’s where we come to the true tragedy of Iraq: An entire civilizational structure has been completely, wantonly and needlessly destroyed. In so many ways, in so many places, we will be paying the price for this war for generations.
Crossposted at dailykos.com
Friday, September 21, 2007
Friday, August 17, 2007
All about Pakistan
So, for all those of you who want to know:
This is my take on the country and region I have been living in for the past year+. Much like my own country, Pakistan is not a real nation, it is a political state, in this case based on a common religion, encompassing the Islamic parts of old British India, more on that horrendous breakup later. Even the name is not organic, derived as an anagram of the initials of the major ethnic groups in the country (Pushtun/Punjab+Afghan+Kashmir+Islam+Sindh+balochiSTAN). It used to include non-contiguous East Pakistan as well, not connected through anything but religion, but those folks, imagine this, felt neglected and abused at the hands of their Muslim brethren in West Pakistan. East Pakistan eventually became Bangladesh. I got to thinking the other day and if it were still in existence, British India would be the largest country on earth, encompassing, as it did, India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and of course, Pakistan.
Anyway, Pakistan is bedeviled by all the ills afflicting most states freed from colonial rule in the mid-20th century: corruption, incompetence, weak institutions, interference from abroad, an overly powerful military, ethnic strife and on and on. Combined with the innate deference and subservience to authority of a colonized people, these problems have served to enable and then corrupt a series of authoritarian governments. And then, of course, there’s India, the gargantuan neighbor, from whose original territory Pakistan was carved, that is always seen, rightly or wrongly, as a threat, with territorial designs on the land and the people. The fact that many Muslims remain in India, even after the bloody partition of the 1940’s, and that those Indian Muslims are perceived to be an oppressed minority, also helps the authoritarians keep opposition in check and line their own pockets in the name of Muslim solidarity.
Even though Pakistan is formally an Islamic republic, the founder of the state and revered father of the country, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, was an unbearded secularist. Of course, he was around in the first half of the 20th century, when it looked liked Communism had all the answers and secularism was the order of the day. Religion had its place, yes, but it was fast fading away, or so they thought, since the Pakistani version of the fundamentalist revival was building well out of view of elites like Jinnah. His vaguely sinister motto “Unity, Faith, Discipline”, appears all over, most notably in big “HOLLYWOOD” style letters on a hill alongside the road from the airport below a giant neon silhouette of the man himself.
Anyway, as the worldwide, pan-religious fundamentalist movement began to assert itself in Pakistan, smart Pakistani politicians did what smart American politicians did: they allied themselves with it. Now, since Pakistan rarely had regular elections like in the US, (not saying US elections are free and fair, of course, just regular) this alliance took the form not of electoral pandering a la Reagan, Bush and every Republican, but of legal and financial support to various fundamentalist Islamic leaders and institutions. But the strategy was the same and the results, if taken to their logical, and what appears too often to be inevitable, conclusion are the same as well.
Therein lies the story of the Red Mosque, or Lal Masjid, a situation which blew up so spectacularly a few weeks ago; the father of the two brothers who ran the mosque was given government land and sanction 40 years ago to operate in the heart of Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital. Literally the “City of Islam”, Islamabad is actually a moderate, quiet almost sleepy town, a purpose built capital (like DC or Canberra) with T-square straight roads dividing mile square sectors with names like G-6 and F-7, where diplomatic plates for outnumber headscarves and government functionaries and bureaucrats and foreign missions file directives on how to file. (Billboards around town remind the locals “We want a disciplined City”. The ascetic, stern Jinnah was big on discipline.) Over the years, with the funding and favor of the government, and supporting the nominally secular government in turn, the Lal Masjid folks and their ilk continued to grow their empire, and taking in the young children of Pakistan’s poorest, (see earlier post) along with those of many of the middle class bureaucrats of the capital.
It was a pretty good bargain, and would obtain for many years. But factors both within and outside of Pakistan slowly changed the dynamic in favor of the fundamentalists. First, it’s just their time. The pendulum has been swinging towards the nationalists and fundamentalists for a while and shows no signs of slowing down. But what really brought them to the fore in Pakistan, and from here to other places, was the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the West’s reaction to it.
The invasion was expected to be pretty much a walk over on all sides. The Soviets were the real deal, an army that could fight toe to toe with the US in Europe and possibly win. They had a long history of invasions and putting down insurrections in Hungary, Prague, Poland, and dissuading many more with their very existence. And here, finally, the Soviets were going to fulfill the ancient Russian dream of a warm water port for the navy and tropical vacations for the czars. Yet a funny thing happened on the Soviet march to the sea; 1980 became 1981, became ’82, became ‘83, became ’84, became ’85 and still no outright Soviet victory. Even Reagan was ready to give the Russians a pass, criticizing Carter for withdrawing from the Moscow Olympics because, essentially, it was all over but the shouting, so dominant were the Russians. Nobody got it, everyone believed Soviet propaganda that victory was just around the corner, that a few more troops and a few more months and the Soviets would vanquish their enemies. It wasn’t until the mid ‘80’s that people finally realized there was potential to do some serious damage to the Soviets.
And why didn’t the Commies win? Because they picked a fight with the wrong people: the Pushtuns. Afghanistan today is poor in a way that is nearly impossible for us to comprehend. And I’ve been living in Pakistan. And back then, it was worse. Unlike the Hungarians and the Poles and the Czechs, the people of Afghanistan had, and have, NOTHING to lose. They got some sheep, a few goats and rocks. That’s it. Oh, and one other thing, something they will die before they give up: their honor. So they fought. And won. Well, at least they didn’t lose, which is all in insurgency has to do. They got our help, of course, but in the long run, and these people are nothing if not long term thinkers, with or without our help, they were not going to lose, because they had no incentive to do anything but fight to the death. Don’t ever forget: you can’t win in Afghanistan, you can only encourage the people to do what you want them to do. They are, without question, the most honorable people on the planet, if you define honor as living and willingly dying by a code that all respect and all agree to. Remember when Bush said "Surrender Osama or be destroyed" and the Taliban told him to piss up a rope? There was never a chance they would give him up in that situation. You cannot threaten these people. You cannot scare them. They are not afraid. If he had offered to negotiate for Osama's release...Well, It is too tiring to go into, but suffice it to say that this is ANOTHER HUGE Bush screw up. It didn't have to be this way...
Afghanistan is not really a country, either, it is just the twilight zone created when the British stopped conquering northwards and the Russian Empire stopped conquering southwards. It is a collection of tribes who may or may not get along, depending on the issue and the time. They generally like to be left alone and not told what to do, by anyone, and that includes the mullahs. Pushtuns are NOT extremists, unless they are pushed to extremes to protect their honor. Alexander was the last one to have any success in war there, and he only did it by inviting the locals to join what was by then a huge multi-national traveling and raiding army and he didn’t stay very long, so he didn’t have the problems of occupation. About the British invasion: after they conquered all of the sub-continent, they set their sights on the soft underbelly of the Russian Empire. So they sent an army over the Khyber Pass to do battle. One guy got out, and only because he was a doctor and treated the son of one of the warlords. As the old saying says, “Afghanistan swallows armies whole.”
So, the Brits stopped, licked their wounds, drew a line in the mountains, and consolidated their hold on the sub-continent. The line they drew came to be called the Durand line. Over 100 years old, it is still doing what it was designed to do, divide the battle hardened, fiercely independent yet ethnically unified peoples on each side of that artificial border and keep them fighting with each other so they don’t attack the soft, prosperous people of the flatlands. The basic problem of Afghan-Pakistan relations, and from there the fatal flaw in Bush’s “Global War On Terror” (GWOT) can be understood from this map. Well, not THE fatal flaw, the GWOT is full of flaws, it is, in fact, nothing but flaws, but this is one of them. www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/taliban/tribal/map.html In the upper right corner, toggle the white box to see that the borders, as stated earlier, are not “real” meaning cleanly separating a single ethnic group, thereby creating a nation (ethnic) state. What you have is an arbitrary line through the mountains. The war on terror expects every country to extend their writ of control right up to every nook and cranny on every border. In this area, as in so many other in the world, it is just not in the cards.
OK, I’m getting ahead of myself. Or behind. Whatever. Now you may ask, what interest does Pakistan have in Afghanistan? Since India is the traditional enemy of the Pakistan state, so Afghanistan is seen as the place to which a Pakistan government under siege can retreat, much as Pakistan was the place to which the Afghans retreated under the onslaught of the Soviets. Once there, among folks who share their religion and language, they could regroup and attack. The Afghans retreated to Pakistan, the very definition of a Cold War client state, with established military and intelligence links to both the US and the UK.
Although they took their own sweet time about it, leaving thousands of Afghans to die before they helped, the CIA and others eventually funneled millions of dollars and tons of weapons through Pakistan, especially through the heavy duty dudes at the Inter-Services Intelligence or ISI. Oh yeah. The ISI. Kinda forgot about them. That’s a mistake no Pakistani ever makes, however. The ISI is like, like…well, like no other organization anywhere. A shadowy and secret operational intelligence agency, they coordinate and organize all intelligence within Pakistan and are feared and respected. Suffice to say that people I know think they are the one group that can really rip the place apart without even trying.
With millions of US dollars funneled to the Afghan resistance through Pakistan and the ISI, and the calls for Jihad going out around the world, LOTS of people showed up to help, including a bored rich kid from Saudi Arabia who was not sure what to do with his life and his millions, but knew he hated the infidel imperialists, no matter where they came from. That was Osama Bin Laden of course. His origins and the origin of his money also has a Pakistan connection. His father started out as a laborer on construction sites, but he showed a talent for organization and began bidding on work, eventually locking up the biggest single civil construction contract in history, if I'm not mistaken, the contract, still open in fact, to rebuild Mecca, from the airport to the roads, hotels, sewers, etc. etc. etc. all the way to the Great Mosque, so that the millions of pilgrims who make the Hajj every year can do so in relative comfort and ease. And who did most of the building? Pakistanis, of course.
So Osama Bin Laden, among thousands of others, came to join the Mujaheddin, the holy warriors to take on the Soviets. These guys were trained and armed with Pakistani expertise and weapons at US expense. The ISI and the rest of the Pakistan political and military establishment were happy to use their connections with the fundamentalists to recruit jihadis, and of course the US was happy to see all this happen as well. Funny how we didn't mind helping the Jihadis when they were atacking our enemies then, did we? And now they are going to force us out, too. This is nothing about "Fighting them over there so we don't fight them here." That is about the most ridiculous notion I have ever heard. These folks are homebodies, they aren't leaving. They just want us to leave. We can visit them of course. Tourism is no problem, but we have to do it on their terms, not ours and certainly not with guns. This place is unlike anyplace else on the planet and...OK, getting off track again.
Anyway, after years of consigning the folks in Afghanistan to their fate, a fate everyone believed to be inevitable, folks woke up to the fact that the Soviets, with their overstretched supply lines and an increasingly threadbare army, had still not won. The CIA came in to arm the only people who would fight the Soviets: the Pushtuns and Uzbek and Tajik tribesmen, the folks who were getting hammered in Afghanistan. The CIA’s base of operations? Pakistan, specifically Peshawar, the capital of the NWFP, or North West Frontier Province. Money and weapons and supplies and people flowed in and up the Khyber pass and into Afghanistan, reinvigorating trade and smuggling routes still in use today. All this movement of men and materials came at a cost, of course. The US continued our long and unhappy history of propping up military dictators, this time Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq. Zia was not a nice guy, to say the least, but we gave him planes and missiles and big booming guns and other toys. And of course, lots of the money was siphoned off by the military dictators, too.
One thing about those trade and smuggling routes: the bazaar at Peshawar is filled with all kinds of US made military weapons and supplies, much stolen by Afghans working on US bases in Afghanistan, just like it was full of Russian supplies in the 1980’s. I have no idea what the value of the stuff is, but I would imagine that in that box of flash drives I saw, there was at least a little valuable information. A lot of this stuff is smuggled on regular trucks and the like, but things are so institutionalized these days that for the most incriminating things, they use donkey trains over the mountains, and the donkeys have been going back and forth for so long that they know where to go, they don’t even need people to accompany them anymore.
All of this is just par for the course from the US perspective, but it had the effect of solidifying the military hold on the country and entrenching their place in society, something we were happy to see to keep the Soviets in check and keep a toe hold, if required, to address problems in Central Asia. These Pakistan military guys are not stupid. They didn’t ONLY take their money for shopping trips at 5 star hotels in Paris. They invested in their own economy, so much so that the army or army allied people, retired brigadiers and generals and the like, own or control a major company, often the ONLY company, in just about every sector of the Pakistan economy, from cement to food (yes, in Pakistan you can tell them apart, unlike other places I’ve been) and everything in between. While the army has always had a lot of control of the country, the graft from the US support of the Russian-Afghan war was the seed money that took the Pakistan army to the next level of corruption. Now they can rip down forests and pollute rivers and set the price of basic commodities with impunity.
And we haven’t even talked about the refugees yet. Did you know that within a year of the Soviet invasion, over 8 MILLION refuges appeared on Pakistan’s collective doorstep? Neither did I. And you know why? Because the Pakistanis took them in. To the last starving waif, the Pakistanis made room for them and took them in. Remember the code I talked about earlier? This is their code in practice. They did it because Islam tells them they must. Even the poorest people in Pakistan, people with barely a room to live in would hang a blanket to divide the room and invite strangers in to live with them for years. Nothing short of amazing. Even now, many of those refugees remain in Pakistan. Think of it: if 16 million Mexicans, who are Christians after all, came to the US in a year, would our reaction be anything like the Pakistanis’ reaction to the influx of Afghans? Especially after nearly 30 years? Think of that the next time you hear an US politician accuse the Pakistanis of “not doing enough”. Good gravy, what more should they do? These are people who voluntarily impoverished themselves, set their development back 20 years to take care of neighbors in need. And the US can’t make the “sacrifice” to build energy efficient cars? Words fail me.
The US has now committed a measly $750 million over 5 years to address the development problems on the Afghan-Pak border. Considering that is less than 3 days spending in Iraq, and this area, known as FATA or the Federally Administered Tribal Areas is the source of the kind of poverty and alienation that could easily destabilize Pakistan and India. Nuclear states, both. And Afghanistan, where US soldiers risk their lives everyday. The whole thing could blow. And we put a band aid on it. Get used to the names North and South Waziristan and Kurram and Orakzai and the Khyber agency. They could take their place along side names like Fallujah and Anbar and Helmand and Herat and…well you get the idea.
So I hope, after all that, you can see the problem: an entrenched military in cahoots with the fundamentalists, all aided and abetted by some serious heavies at the intelligence agency, in a desperately poor country in one of the most volatile regions of the world. Anyone who tells you they know what is going to happen is, as the saying goes, either a liar or a fool.
Where does that leave us? The Durand line (Afghan-Pak border) will continue to be a HUGE problem, long after all of us are cold and in the ground. The rest of Pakistan is in a period of tremendous instability as the various forces: the army, the intel services, the Jihadis and fundamentalists, even the lawyers are getting into the act, battle it out for influence and control, although the innate good sense of the Pakistani people should prevail, you can never be sure that things won’t spin completely out of control. When I lived there, I never went out without taking a few minutes to check the TV to make sure Musharraf was still alive. The only reason he hasn’t been replaced is that no one else wants the job. But eventually he will be replaced, whether by elections or a coup or assassination or a “retirement to spend more time with the family”. It is sure that the army will remain in control and will take control, even from an elected civilian government if they feel their own interests or those of the largere state are threatened. But beyond that, no one, least of all me, knows what will happen next. Watch that space!!
If you made it this far, congratulations!! There is so much more but this should give you an idea of what we are dealing with.
Cross-posted at www.dailykos.com
This is my take on the country and region I have been living in for the past year+. Much like my own country, Pakistan is not a real nation, it is a political state, in this case based on a common religion, encompassing the Islamic parts of old British India, more on that horrendous breakup later. Even the name is not organic, derived as an anagram of the initials of the major ethnic groups in the country (Pushtun/Punjab+Afghan+Kashmir+Islam+Sindh+balochiSTAN). It used to include non-contiguous East Pakistan as well, not connected through anything but religion, but those folks, imagine this, felt neglected and abused at the hands of their Muslim brethren in West Pakistan. East Pakistan eventually became Bangladesh. I got to thinking the other day and if it were still in existence, British India would be the largest country on earth, encompassing, as it did, India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and of course, Pakistan.
Anyway, Pakistan is bedeviled by all the ills afflicting most states freed from colonial rule in the mid-20th century: corruption, incompetence, weak institutions, interference from abroad, an overly powerful military, ethnic strife and on and on. Combined with the innate deference and subservience to authority of a colonized people, these problems have served to enable and then corrupt a series of authoritarian governments. And then, of course, there’s India, the gargantuan neighbor, from whose original territory Pakistan was carved, that is always seen, rightly or wrongly, as a threat, with territorial designs on the land and the people. The fact that many Muslims remain in India, even after the bloody partition of the 1940’s, and that those Indian Muslims are perceived to be an oppressed minority, also helps the authoritarians keep opposition in check and line their own pockets in the name of Muslim solidarity.
Even though Pakistan is formally an Islamic republic, the founder of the state and revered father of the country, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, was an unbearded secularist. Of course, he was around in the first half of the 20th century, when it looked liked Communism had all the answers and secularism was the order of the day. Religion had its place, yes, but it was fast fading away, or so they thought, since the Pakistani version of the fundamentalist revival was building well out of view of elites like Jinnah. His vaguely sinister motto “Unity, Faith, Discipline”, appears all over, most notably in big “HOLLYWOOD” style letters on a hill alongside the road from the airport below a giant neon silhouette of the man himself.
Anyway, as the worldwide, pan-religious fundamentalist movement began to assert itself in Pakistan, smart Pakistani politicians did what smart American politicians did: they allied themselves with it. Now, since Pakistan rarely had regular elections like in the US, (not saying US elections are free and fair, of course, just regular) this alliance took the form not of electoral pandering a la Reagan, Bush and every Republican, but of legal and financial support to various fundamentalist Islamic leaders and institutions. But the strategy was the same and the results, if taken to their logical, and what appears too often to be inevitable, conclusion are the same as well.
Therein lies the story of the Red Mosque, or Lal Masjid, a situation which blew up so spectacularly a few weeks ago; the father of the two brothers who ran the mosque was given government land and sanction 40 years ago to operate in the heart of Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital. Literally the “City of Islam”, Islamabad is actually a moderate, quiet almost sleepy town, a purpose built capital (like DC or Canberra) with T-square straight roads dividing mile square sectors with names like G-6 and F-7, where diplomatic plates for outnumber headscarves and government functionaries and bureaucrats and foreign missions file directives on how to file. (Billboards around town remind the locals “We want a disciplined City”. The ascetic, stern Jinnah was big on discipline.) Over the years, with the funding and favor of the government, and supporting the nominally secular government in turn, the Lal Masjid folks and their ilk continued to grow their empire, and taking in the young children of Pakistan’s poorest, (see earlier post) along with those of many of the middle class bureaucrats of the capital.
It was a pretty good bargain, and would obtain for many years. But factors both within and outside of Pakistan slowly changed the dynamic in favor of the fundamentalists. First, it’s just their time. The pendulum has been swinging towards the nationalists and fundamentalists for a while and shows no signs of slowing down. But what really brought them to the fore in Pakistan, and from here to other places, was the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the West’s reaction to it.
The invasion was expected to be pretty much a walk over on all sides. The Soviets were the real deal, an army that could fight toe to toe with the US in Europe and possibly win. They had a long history of invasions and putting down insurrections in Hungary, Prague, Poland, and dissuading many more with their very existence. And here, finally, the Soviets were going to fulfill the ancient Russian dream of a warm water port for the navy and tropical vacations for the czars. Yet a funny thing happened on the Soviet march to the sea; 1980 became 1981, became ’82, became ‘83, became ’84, became ’85 and still no outright Soviet victory. Even Reagan was ready to give the Russians a pass, criticizing Carter for withdrawing from the Moscow Olympics because, essentially, it was all over but the shouting, so dominant were the Russians. Nobody got it, everyone believed Soviet propaganda that victory was just around the corner, that a few more troops and a few more months and the Soviets would vanquish their enemies. It wasn’t until the mid ‘80’s that people finally realized there was potential to do some serious damage to the Soviets.
And why didn’t the Commies win? Because they picked a fight with the wrong people: the Pushtuns. Afghanistan today is poor in a way that is nearly impossible for us to comprehend. And I’ve been living in Pakistan. And back then, it was worse. Unlike the Hungarians and the Poles and the Czechs, the people of Afghanistan had, and have, NOTHING to lose. They got some sheep, a few goats and rocks. That’s it. Oh, and one other thing, something they will die before they give up: their honor. So they fought. And won. Well, at least they didn’t lose, which is all in insurgency has to do. They got our help, of course, but in the long run, and these people are nothing if not long term thinkers, with or without our help, they were not going to lose, because they had no incentive to do anything but fight to the death. Don’t ever forget: you can’t win in Afghanistan, you can only encourage the people to do what you want them to do. They are, without question, the most honorable people on the planet, if you define honor as living and willingly dying by a code that all respect and all agree to. Remember when Bush said "Surrender Osama or be destroyed" and the Taliban told him to piss up a rope? There was never a chance they would give him up in that situation. You cannot threaten these people. You cannot scare them. They are not afraid. If he had offered to negotiate for Osama's release...Well, It is too tiring to go into, but suffice it to say that this is ANOTHER HUGE Bush screw up. It didn't have to be this way...
Afghanistan is not really a country, either, it is just the twilight zone created when the British stopped conquering northwards and the Russian Empire stopped conquering southwards. It is a collection of tribes who may or may not get along, depending on the issue and the time. They generally like to be left alone and not told what to do, by anyone, and that includes the mullahs. Pushtuns are NOT extremists, unless they are pushed to extremes to protect their honor. Alexander was the last one to have any success in war there, and he only did it by inviting the locals to join what was by then a huge multi-national traveling and raiding army and he didn’t stay very long, so he didn’t have the problems of occupation. About the British invasion: after they conquered all of the sub-continent, they set their sights on the soft underbelly of the Russian Empire. So they sent an army over the Khyber Pass to do battle. One guy got out, and only because he was a doctor and treated the son of one of the warlords. As the old saying says, “Afghanistan swallows armies whole.”
So, the Brits stopped, licked their wounds, drew a line in the mountains, and consolidated their hold on the sub-continent. The line they drew came to be called the Durand line. Over 100 years old, it is still doing what it was designed to do, divide the battle hardened, fiercely independent yet ethnically unified peoples on each side of that artificial border and keep them fighting with each other so they don’t attack the soft, prosperous people of the flatlands. The basic problem of Afghan-Pakistan relations, and from there the fatal flaw in Bush’s “Global War On Terror” (GWOT) can be understood from this map. Well, not THE fatal flaw, the GWOT is full of flaws, it is, in fact, nothing but flaws, but this is one of them. www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/taliban/tribal/map.html In the upper right corner, toggle the white box to see that the borders, as stated earlier, are not “real” meaning cleanly separating a single ethnic group, thereby creating a nation (ethnic) state. What you have is an arbitrary line through the mountains. The war on terror expects every country to extend their writ of control right up to every nook and cranny on every border. In this area, as in so many other in the world, it is just not in the cards.
OK, I’m getting ahead of myself. Or behind. Whatever. Now you may ask, what interest does Pakistan have in Afghanistan? Since India is the traditional enemy of the Pakistan state, so Afghanistan is seen as the place to which a Pakistan government under siege can retreat, much as Pakistan was the place to which the Afghans retreated under the onslaught of the Soviets. Once there, among folks who share their religion and language, they could regroup and attack. The Afghans retreated to Pakistan, the very definition of a Cold War client state, with established military and intelligence links to both the US and the UK.
Although they took their own sweet time about it, leaving thousands of Afghans to die before they helped, the CIA and others eventually funneled millions of dollars and tons of weapons through Pakistan, especially through the heavy duty dudes at the Inter-Services Intelligence or ISI. Oh yeah. The ISI. Kinda forgot about them. That’s a mistake no Pakistani ever makes, however. The ISI is like, like…well, like no other organization anywhere. A shadowy and secret operational intelligence agency, they coordinate and organize all intelligence within Pakistan and are feared and respected. Suffice to say that people I know think they are the one group that can really rip the place apart without even trying.
With millions of US dollars funneled to the Afghan resistance through Pakistan and the ISI, and the calls for Jihad going out around the world, LOTS of people showed up to help, including a bored rich kid from Saudi Arabia who was not sure what to do with his life and his millions, but knew he hated the infidel imperialists, no matter where they came from. That was Osama Bin Laden of course. His origins and the origin of his money also has a Pakistan connection. His father started out as a laborer on construction sites, but he showed a talent for organization and began bidding on work, eventually locking up the biggest single civil construction contract in history, if I'm not mistaken, the contract, still open in fact, to rebuild Mecca, from the airport to the roads, hotels, sewers, etc. etc. etc. all the way to the Great Mosque, so that the millions of pilgrims who make the Hajj every year can do so in relative comfort and ease. And who did most of the building? Pakistanis, of course.
So Osama Bin Laden, among thousands of others, came to join the Mujaheddin, the holy warriors to take on the Soviets. These guys were trained and armed with Pakistani expertise and weapons at US expense. The ISI and the rest of the Pakistan political and military establishment were happy to use their connections with the fundamentalists to recruit jihadis, and of course the US was happy to see all this happen as well. Funny how we didn't mind helping the Jihadis when they were atacking our enemies then, did we? And now they are going to force us out, too. This is nothing about "Fighting them over there so we don't fight them here." That is about the most ridiculous notion I have ever heard. These folks are homebodies, they aren't leaving. They just want us to leave. We can visit them of course. Tourism is no problem, but we have to do it on their terms, not ours and certainly not with guns. This place is unlike anyplace else on the planet and...OK, getting off track again.
Anyway, after years of consigning the folks in Afghanistan to their fate, a fate everyone believed to be inevitable, folks woke up to the fact that the Soviets, with their overstretched supply lines and an increasingly threadbare army, had still not won. The CIA came in to arm the only people who would fight the Soviets: the Pushtuns and Uzbek and Tajik tribesmen, the folks who were getting hammered in Afghanistan. The CIA’s base of operations? Pakistan, specifically Peshawar, the capital of the NWFP, or North West Frontier Province. Money and weapons and supplies and people flowed in and up the Khyber pass and into Afghanistan, reinvigorating trade and smuggling routes still in use today. All this movement of men and materials came at a cost, of course. The US continued our long and unhappy history of propping up military dictators, this time Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq. Zia was not a nice guy, to say the least, but we gave him planes and missiles and big booming guns and other toys. And of course, lots of the money was siphoned off by the military dictators, too.
One thing about those trade and smuggling routes: the bazaar at Peshawar is filled with all kinds of US made military weapons and supplies, much stolen by Afghans working on US bases in Afghanistan, just like it was full of Russian supplies in the 1980’s. I have no idea what the value of the stuff is, but I would imagine that in that box of flash drives I saw, there was at least a little valuable information. A lot of this stuff is smuggled on regular trucks and the like, but things are so institutionalized these days that for the most incriminating things, they use donkey trains over the mountains, and the donkeys have been going back and forth for so long that they know where to go, they don’t even need people to accompany them anymore.
All of this is just par for the course from the US perspective, but it had the effect of solidifying the military hold on the country and entrenching their place in society, something we were happy to see to keep the Soviets in check and keep a toe hold, if required, to address problems in Central Asia. These Pakistan military guys are not stupid. They didn’t ONLY take their money for shopping trips at 5 star hotels in Paris. They invested in their own economy, so much so that the army or army allied people, retired brigadiers and generals and the like, own or control a major company, often the ONLY company, in just about every sector of the Pakistan economy, from cement to food (yes, in Pakistan you can tell them apart, unlike other places I’ve been) and everything in between. While the army has always had a lot of control of the country, the graft from the US support of the Russian-Afghan war was the seed money that took the Pakistan army to the next level of corruption. Now they can rip down forests and pollute rivers and set the price of basic commodities with impunity.
And we haven’t even talked about the refugees yet. Did you know that within a year of the Soviet invasion, over 8 MILLION refuges appeared on Pakistan’s collective doorstep? Neither did I. And you know why? Because the Pakistanis took them in. To the last starving waif, the Pakistanis made room for them and took them in. Remember the code I talked about earlier? This is their code in practice. They did it because Islam tells them they must. Even the poorest people in Pakistan, people with barely a room to live in would hang a blanket to divide the room and invite strangers in to live with them for years. Nothing short of amazing. Even now, many of those refugees remain in Pakistan. Think of it: if 16 million Mexicans, who are Christians after all, came to the US in a year, would our reaction be anything like the Pakistanis’ reaction to the influx of Afghans? Especially after nearly 30 years? Think of that the next time you hear an US politician accuse the Pakistanis of “not doing enough”. Good gravy, what more should they do? These are people who voluntarily impoverished themselves, set their development back 20 years to take care of neighbors in need. And the US can’t make the “sacrifice” to build energy efficient cars? Words fail me.
The US has now committed a measly $750 million over 5 years to address the development problems on the Afghan-Pak border. Considering that is less than 3 days spending in Iraq, and this area, known as FATA or the Federally Administered Tribal Areas is the source of the kind of poverty and alienation that could easily destabilize Pakistan and India. Nuclear states, both. And Afghanistan, where US soldiers risk their lives everyday. The whole thing could blow. And we put a band aid on it. Get used to the names North and South Waziristan and Kurram and Orakzai and the Khyber agency. They could take their place along side names like Fallujah and Anbar and Helmand and Herat and…well you get the idea.
So I hope, after all that, you can see the problem: an entrenched military in cahoots with the fundamentalists, all aided and abetted by some serious heavies at the intelligence agency, in a desperately poor country in one of the most volatile regions of the world. Anyone who tells you they know what is going to happen is, as the saying goes, either a liar or a fool.
Where does that leave us? The Durand line (Afghan-Pak border) will continue to be a HUGE problem, long after all of us are cold and in the ground. The rest of Pakistan is in a period of tremendous instability as the various forces: the army, the intel services, the Jihadis and fundamentalists, even the lawyers are getting into the act, battle it out for influence and control, although the innate good sense of the Pakistani people should prevail, you can never be sure that things won’t spin completely out of control. When I lived there, I never went out without taking a few minutes to check the TV to make sure Musharraf was still alive. The only reason he hasn’t been replaced is that no one else wants the job. But eventually he will be replaced, whether by elections or a coup or assassination or a “retirement to spend more time with the family”. It is sure that the army will remain in control and will take control, even from an elected civilian government if they feel their own interests or those of the largere state are threatened. But beyond that, no one, least of all me, knows what will happen next. Watch that space!!
If you made it this far, congratulations!! There is so much more but this should give you an idea of what we are dealing with.
Cross-posted at www.dailykos.com
Wednesday, August 1, 2007
Good news...
Mr. Hassan Abdel Moneim Mostafa, the Regional Representative of the International Organization for Migration's Mission with Regional Functions for West and Central Asia, or as I call him , Hassan, came to our little office in Muzaffarabad today. And what a treat it was. He only stopped by for a few hours, but he saw our office and all the latest improvements, visited our two project sites and talked to the staff. It was a great visit for many reasons. Mostly, Hassan is just a great guy. Expansive, gracious, generous, thoughtful, a real old time gentleman, Hassan is an Egyptian diplomat who has been with IOM for years. I enjoy his company and he is the only boss I've had who obviously works at putting people completely at ease.
Anyway, he was suitably impressed with what we have done here in teh past few months. We have finished several projects and gotten another HUGE project well underway after a slow start. So, Hassan and I had a discussion and he agreed that as soon as I feel comfortable with the status of the programs here, I can be on my way to Amman. I think it will take to the end of this week to get things running properly and then a few days to hand over the operation to my replacement and a day or two in Islamabad and by Thursday say, I can get out of here. Just great news all around.
OK, I'm tired and still have not finished my Pakistan piece. I'd like to get to it tomorrow, but I have hired 20 new staff and I need to plan the training for them for Friday and the rest of the weekend, plus I am finishing designing the database for tracking the houses we are building and setting up the standard operating procedures, designing the forms we are using for those procedures, and choosing the last bits of decoration to go on the park we have finished plus writing my handover notes and collecting all the emails that we have used to communicate with the contractors for the houses and passing all that along to my replacement. Anyway, I don't see finishing it for another few days.
More to come
Anyway, he was suitably impressed with what we have done here in teh past few months. We have finished several projects and gotten another HUGE project well underway after a slow start. So, Hassan and I had a discussion and he agreed that as soon as I feel comfortable with the status of the programs here, I can be on my way to Amman. I think it will take to the end of this week to get things running properly and then a few days to hand over the operation to my replacement and a day or two in Islamabad and by Thursday say, I can get out of here. Just great news all around.
OK, I'm tired and still have not finished my Pakistan piece. I'd like to get to it tomorrow, but I have hired 20 new staff and I need to plan the training for them for Friday and the rest of the weekend, plus I am finishing designing the database for tracking the houses we are building and setting up the standard operating procedures, designing the forms we are using for those procedures, and choosing the last bits of decoration to go on the park we have finished plus writing my handover notes and collecting all the emails that we have used to communicate with the contractors for the houses and passing all that along to my replacement. Anyway, I don't see finishing it for another few days.
More to come
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
It's been a long day
Well, I'm not getting much of an original post out tonight. It's been a long day and I'mbe eat. I was on the road at 07:00 to go to Islamabad for a meeting at 11:00, then talking to folks at the head office, I had to really put the fear of Allah into one of our contractors on the housing project, and then drive back here. I have to say, the seats in our Toyota Prado are about as uncomfortable as they are good looking. Like I say, they look great, but they slope down at the back and create a pinch in my legs and if the chair is not all the way back...this is more detail then any one needs. Let's just say the the Pakistan roads are rough on your backside.
So, what to write about? My frustration with my Pakistani counterparts who are refusing to do what we ask of them or are happy to continue to tell me things are going great when they are not? I guess the contractor I spoke to today is a good place to delve into the character of the folks here.
Nice enough guy, Khurshid is his name. But he lies. Constantly, consistently, without shame or remorse. He just can't help himself. Agreeability and assent to wathever the boss asks is jsut the way of the place. For example, while trying to prove another point, he pulled out an email from June 9th where he said he had 50 houses, "almost near to 100%" completion and would deliver them in "15 days". It is now 1 August and he has delivered 42 houses. "yes, but that is not what I want to talk about..." I'll bet!! I don't want to talk about it either, but we have to. And the point he was trying to prove: that we had not responded to an earlier email. So I just flipped forward one page, and there was the response. He lied when he himself had the evidence to the contrary. Incredible.
Anyway, the contract for 200 houses is supposed to be done by 9 October. Ain't no way that is going to happen. And he knows it. So now he's sweatin' bullets and shittin' razor blades. He wants another 75 days. The late penalty is .1% per day, so for 200 houses, that amounts to a free house every 5 days. No extension means he loses $60,000. And that presumes he can produce 8 houses a week. Which he can't. And he can give no reasonable explanaion of why he should get extra time. Amazing.
Anyway, the reason I write this is that I tried to get him to drop his fast talking, bullshitting ways and own up to the truth. He's the kind of guy who will tell you what he thinks you want to hear. I asked him to find the honest, honorable person inside him, the person who is not afraid of the truth, and let that man talk to me. And then I asked him to tell me the truth. I said, maybe I've been sent here to force you, finally, to confront your personal issues and finally, for once, tell someone the truth. I said if you tell me the truth, I will advocate your side, but if you lie, or if you are so deceived even you don't know the truth, then I will argue against you, and everything you have built will be destroyed. Your business, your good name, we will take it all, force the court to liquidate everything to settle the contract. YOur company will no longer exist. Think before you answer.
The answer, of course, is "Mr. David, I made a HUGE mistake. I signed this contract without even reading it because all I could see was the $160,000 advance. I had no idea what I was doing and still don't and now I am in trouble. All those times you came to my work site and tried to tell me the kind of problems I was having and the things I had to do to fix them and I just said it would be fine and that you shouldn't worry, those dozens of times and pleaded with me to help me, well, you were right and I was wrong. I'm sorry, I need your help now. Please.' That was the right answer.
He thought for a minute. I could see I precipitated a tiny bit of introspection. A bit. He thought some more. Looked up and said, "Three things. Your predecessor made things very difficult for us. The beneficiaries are not helping. And..." I cut him off. Wrong answer. "Khurshid", I said, "You signed the contract. No one put a gun to your head. You signed a contract and you had no idea what you were getting into. Did you read it? Do you know what this says? I know you read the part about the $160,000. I know you took the whole family out to dinner that night, didn't you? (he nodded) I am sorry to tell you but I will argue that you not get an extension and the we force you to adhere to the letter of the contract and if that means bankruptcy, well, you are still relatively young. You are an entrepreneur, you can do it again. You have destroyed your company, but they will let you keep your car, your house and your family. And you know what, even though you have destroyed your honor, you still have your brain. And with that brain, you can decide to be honest. It is up to you."
He was stunned. We talked a bit more, but I"ve had it with this sort of behavior. There are two other contractors, and I am not giving them an inch either. There will be blood on the floor of my office. Let's just hope it is not mine. But, agreeable to the last, what did he do after I promised him I would destroy everything he built, ruin his whole life and force him to start over? He thanked me!!
OK, I'm beat. I put a guy through the wringer today, and while it had a certain, 'just desserts" quality to it, it was also very tiring.
OK, More later,
Sourmash
So, what to write about? My frustration with my Pakistani counterparts who are refusing to do what we ask of them or are happy to continue to tell me things are going great when they are not? I guess the contractor I spoke to today is a good place to delve into the character of the folks here.
Nice enough guy, Khurshid is his name. But he lies. Constantly, consistently, without shame or remorse. He just can't help himself. Agreeability and assent to wathever the boss asks is jsut the way of the place. For example, while trying to prove another point, he pulled out an email from June 9th where he said he had 50 houses, "almost near to 100%" completion and would deliver them in "15 days". It is now 1 August and he has delivered 42 houses. "yes, but that is not what I want to talk about..." I'll bet!! I don't want to talk about it either, but we have to. And the point he was trying to prove: that we had not responded to an earlier email. So I just flipped forward one page, and there was the response. He lied when he himself had the evidence to the contrary. Incredible.
Anyway, the contract for 200 houses is supposed to be done by 9 October. Ain't no way that is going to happen. And he knows it. So now he's sweatin' bullets and shittin' razor blades. He wants another 75 days. The late penalty is .1% per day, so for 200 houses, that amounts to a free house every 5 days. No extension means he loses $60,000. And that presumes he can produce 8 houses a week. Which he can't. And he can give no reasonable explanaion of why he should get extra time. Amazing.
Anyway, the reason I write this is that I tried to get him to drop his fast talking, bullshitting ways and own up to the truth. He's the kind of guy who will tell you what he thinks you want to hear. I asked him to find the honest, honorable person inside him, the person who is not afraid of the truth, and let that man talk to me. And then I asked him to tell me the truth. I said, maybe I've been sent here to force you, finally, to confront your personal issues and finally, for once, tell someone the truth. I said if you tell me the truth, I will advocate your side, but if you lie, or if you are so deceived even you don't know the truth, then I will argue against you, and everything you have built will be destroyed. Your business, your good name, we will take it all, force the court to liquidate everything to settle the contract. YOur company will no longer exist. Think before you answer.
The answer, of course, is "Mr. David, I made a HUGE mistake. I signed this contract without even reading it because all I could see was the $160,000 advance. I had no idea what I was doing and still don't and now I am in trouble. All those times you came to my work site and tried to tell me the kind of problems I was having and the things I had to do to fix them and I just said it would be fine and that you shouldn't worry, those dozens of times and pleaded with me to help me, well, you were right and I was wrong. I'm sorry, I need your help now. Please.' That was the right answer.
He thought for a minute. I could see I precipitated a tiny bit of introspection. A bit. He thought some more. Looked up and said, "Three things. Your predecessor made things very difficult for us. The beneficiaries are not helping. And..." I cut him off. Wrong answer. "Khurshid", I said, "You signed the contract. No one put a gun to your head. You signed a contract and you had no idea what you were getting into. Did you read it? Do you know what this says? I know you read the part about the $160,000. I know you took the whole family out to dinner that night, didn't you? (he nodded) I am sorry to tell you but I will argue that you not get an extension and the we force you to adhere to the letter of the contract and if that means bankruptcy, well, you are still relatively young. You are an entrepreneur, you can do it again. You have destroyed your company, but they will let you keep your car, your house and your family. And you know what, even though you have destroyed your honor, you still have your brain. And with that brain, you can decide to be honest. It is up to you."
He was stunned. We talked a bit more, but I"ve had it with this sort of behavior. There are two other contractors, and I am not giving them an inch either. There will be blood on the floor of my office. Let's just hope it is not mine. But, agreeable to the last, what did he do after I promised him I would destroy everything he built, ruin his whole life and force him to start over? He thanked me!!
OK, I'm beat. I put a guy through the wringer today, and while it had a certain, 'just desserts" quality to it, it was also very tiring.
OK, More later,
Sourmash
Sunday, July 29, 2007
Notes from the Macedonia desk...
My Pakistan piece is still incomplete, so here's an old one from New Year's '05...
Well folks, just got back from
As international travelers are aware, the
We arrived on the 31st, but owing to a late departure from
As we turned the corner, I stopped to survey the whole scene. A riotous mass of people and vehicles and market stalls, people jostling, buying, selling, arguing, drinking, eating, smoking. Puddles of stagnant, oily blackwater were everywhere; runty, mangy dogs sniffed around the periphery as old men in soiled skull caps kicked them away. The dark air was heavy with bus exhaust, smoke and soot, fly ash settled on everything and the air resounded with honking horns, grinding bus gears and squealing brakes and regular explosions set off as product demos. Random piles of burning garbage and thick clouds of smoke coming from the dumpsters completed the scene. Honest to god, it was like some little Balkans version of hell. The welded sheet metal and angle iron shop stalls with their chipped green paint were overloaded, as usual, with every imaginable kind of household good and clothing, all of it cheap Turkish and Asian knockoff goods: “SOMY” electronics and “Durcel” batteries and “Dail” soap and the like. They had virtually everything except cotton socks and boxer shorts. After digging through piles of flip-flops and plastic kitchen utensils, I finally located acceptable underwear and we went home.
Home, in
We went out to the New Year’s celebrations in the city center, an event designed to celebrate the completion of renovations to both the old bridge and the main square. The square has been repaved and was decked out for the celebration with a canopy of lights, several neon palm trees topped off by a lighted Christmas tree in the center of the whole thing. Although well lit, it was alas, poorly amplified so the sound was fairly lost in the crowd. The fireworks, however, were great, a full 15 minutes of booms and sparkles and bright flares lighting up the
“
Once our bags arrived we were able to make our way to Kriva Palanka, my Peace Corps site and my wife’s home town. This trip brought back all kinds of memories, good and bad. With no clothes, I had not showered since
On the good side,
Daily life is the same, though. The food hadn’t changed. At all. Ajvar everywhere. Nor had the rakia. My father in law’s homebrew can still peel the enamel off your teeth and make it feel like you’re being poked in the eye. From the inside.
Unfortunately the growth in new car ownership seems to have stalled, as has the replacement of older socialist wheels with newer European models. Several new car stores have closed. Tied to the Euro, the denar is going up fast against the dollar making things a lot more expensive for us dollarized tourists. An overvalued currency also encourages spending on imports and on foreign travel, something
The worst thing is the general dissatisfaction among my friends. The new Social Democratic government appears to be every bit as corrupt and rapacious and yes, murderous as the last Nationalist one. You’ll remember that the last government decided to demonstrate their solidarity in the war on terror by dragging some poor Pakistani unfortunates, themselves victims of human traffickers, to the hills near Albania, shooting them, dressing them in Albanian rebel uniforms and inviting the US Ambassador to see how the brave Macedonian police uncovered and disposed of an Al Qaeda cell RIGHT HERE IN EUROPE!! If you read carefully, though, you’ll see they got the order wrong and shot them BEFORE putting on the uniforms.
The perps of that little incident are now in jail, but the new government, while leaning on a Chinese immigrant who had just opened a restaurant, miscalculated. The guy pulled a knife and killed one of the mobsters before his partner shot the restaurant owner. As bad as they were, the Nationalists only picked on the big guys. The Socialists, it seems, are leaning on everyone. And the attitudes of my friends, most of whom are pretty positive thinking people, have all gone south. Hard to find an optimist in Kriva Palanka these days.
Another disappointing situation was the public dispute about giving aid to the tsunami victims. The general consensus, in public, on TV, in the papers seemed to be that since
Saturday, July 28, 2007
Ambassador Ryan Crocker stinks
I'm working on a Pakistan piece, but it is just growing and growing. I might have to do it in two or three pieces. We'll see.
In the mean time, chew on this one: "Also Thursday, US Ambassador Ryan Crocker said increased US troop strength had brought down violence, but it was impossible to rush political reconciliation..." This is Ryan Crocker, the US Ambassador to Iraq. This is the guy who, along with Gen. Dave Petraeus, is going to ask for more time for the "surge" in Iraq to work when they come to DC in September to give the assessment that is, or at least was, supposed to be when we know if Iraq can be salvaged.
Anyway, this is not Crocker's first job. Although he is a "GWOT guy" (Global War On Terror) as we call them, he has done other things, too. In fact, Ambassador Crocker was just in charge of the US Embassy in, of all places, Pakistan. Is there another place on earth that is as sensitive and whose US relations are as poorly managed as those in Pakistan right now? Outside of Iraq, I think not. It is just amazing how they keep putting these incompetents in charge of serious stuff. He is the one who oversaw the "peace" deal in Waziristan with the tribes that has lead to the border areas becoming a haven for Al Qaeda. This guy is a chump and ime will show that Ryan Crocker is just not up to the job.
The Bush Adminstration has had exactly one major foreign policy success in the last two years, the agreements in North Korea. This was not due to anyone in Washington, but to the efforts and hard work of my old friend Chris Hill, who was a big part of settling the Balkans. And where is Hill now? Mopping up in East Asia. Amazing. Anyway, look for Chris to have a major role in the coming Democratic administration. He's an old friend of the Secretary of State in waiting, Richard Holbrooke, and given his accomplishments, skill and success at working for both Democrats and Republicans, I would expect him to be Holbrooke's number two at State. You heard it here first.
More Iraq: I read today in the NY Times that the government of Iraq is refusing to take over the infrastructure projects paid for by US taxpayers. Now, I don't much about a lot of things, and there are just a few things about which I know a little tiny bit, but when it comes to working infrastructure projects in post-conflict and post-disaster situations, I know more than your average bear. There are three things you need when you do these sorts of projects: the consent of the community where they are going in, (better to have their active participation, best is to have their outright cooperation and a monetary contribution), a plan for operation once it is completed, including people with the proper maintenance skills and a way to pay for it, and a government or private entity with the proper funding and support from the community and long term out look to ensure that the thing will be taken care of in the long term.
I know this. My colleagues in the business know this. Only one of those people was in Iraq. None of the rest of us got jobs in Iraq. Those went to 25 year old Republicans from Texas who went with no experience, no understanding of the local conditions and no desire to learn. This is the result.
In the mean time, chew on this one: "Also Thursday, US Ambassador Ryan Crocker said increased US troop strength had brought down violence, but it was impossible to rush political reconciliation..." This is Ryan Crocker, the US Ambassador to Iraq. This is the guy who, along with Gen. Dave Petraeus, is going to ask for more time for the "surge" in Iraq to work when they come to DC in September to give the assessment that is, or at least was, supposed to be when we know if Iraq can be salvaged.
Anyway, this is not Crocker's first job. Although he is a "GWOT guy" (Global War On Terror) as we call them, he has done other things, too. In fact, Ambassador Crocker was just in charge of the US Embassy in, of all places, Pakistan. Is there another place on earth that is as sensitive and whose US relations are as poorly managed as those in Pakistan right now? Outside of Iraq, I think not. It is just amazing how they keep putting these incompetents in charge of serious stuff. He is the one who oversaw the "peace" deal in Waziristan with the tribes that has lead to the border areas becoming a haven for Al Qaeda. This guy is a chump and ime will show that Ryan Crocker is just not up to the job.
The Bush Adminstration has had exactly one major foreign policy success in the last two years, the agreements in North Korea. This was not due to anyone in Washington, but to the efforts and hard work of my old friend Chris Hill, who was a big part of settling the Balkans. And where is Hill now? Mopping up in East Asia. Amazing. Anyway, look for Chris to have a major role in the coming Democratic administration. He's an old friend of the Secretary of State in waiting, Richard Holbrooke, and given his accomplishments, skill and success at working for both Democrats and Republicans, I would expect him to be Holbrooke's number two at State. You heard it here first.
More Iraq: I read today in the NY Times that the government of Iraq is refusing to take over the infrastructure projects paid for by US taxpayers. Now, I don't much about a lot of things, and there are just a few things about which I know a little tiny bit, but when it comes to working infrastructure projects in post-conflict and post-disaster situations, I know more than your average bear. There are three things you need when you do these sorts of projects: the consent of the community where they are going in, (better to have their active participation, best is to have their outright cooperation and a monetary contribution), a plan for operation once it is completed, including people with the proper maintenance skills and a way to pay for it, and a government or private entity with the proper funding and support from the community and long term out look to ensure that the thing will be taken care of in the long term.
I know this. My colleagues in the business know this. Only one of those people was in Iraq. None of the rest of us got jobs in Iraq. Those went to 25 year old Republicans from Texas who went with no experience, no understanding of the local conditions and no desire to learn. This is the result.
Friday, July 27, 2007
Ticking time bombs
Well, I'm keeping at it. So far. When I was in the US for two weeks, Pakistan was big in the news. I see that has slowed considerably, but at the time, everyone was worried about me and my safety. Fear not, friends, my little corner of Pakistan is calm and peaceful. But there is a bomb on the horizon, a big one, and it is going to reverberate louder and longer than most.
Here's the story. Pakistan has about 165 million people. The child and infant mortality rate of Pakistan as a whole is 10% as reported in the Economist. This means that 10% of the children die before they reach the age of 5. I know several people who have had children die since I got here. Pakistan is a net emigrant country, supplying people not just to the traditional immigration countries of the US, Canada and Australia, but also to England due to colonial ties and places like the Persian Gulf states, (Pakistanis built Dubai, the UAE, and much of Saudi Arabia), Europe and, to a lesser extent, Central Asia. If you read my previous post, you understand why: Life in Pakistan is pretty much awful. In fact, when I had some contractors in from Turkey, they reported many requests for visas. People feel it would be better to be an illiterate, unattached itinerant worker in Turkey than at home in Pakistan? Makes you think.
Lastly, life expectancy is in the low 60s. So, children die, people leave, and everyone dies young. Yet with all these population pressures, you'd think the place was going to empty out. In fact, Pakistan's population is predicted to double in 25 years, to over 300 million people. Ka-boom!! The numbers are just scary. What are all these people going to do? How will they eat? And with the Himalayan glaciers melting, where will they get water? It is just too awful to think about. More tragedies on the way.
Have a great day.
Here's the story. Pakistan has about 165 million people. The child and infant mortality rate of Pakistan as a whole is 10% as reported in the Economist. This means that 10% of the children die before they reach the age of 5. I know several people who have had children die since I got here. Pakistan is a net emigrant country, supplying people not just to the traditional immigration countries of the US, Canada and Australia, but also to England due to colonial ties and places like the Persian Gulf states, (Pakistanis built Dubai, the UAE, and much of Saudi Arabia), Europe and, to a lesser extent, Central Asia. If you read my previous post, you understand why: Life in Pakistan is pretty much awful. In fact, when I had some contractors in from Turkey, they reported many requests for visas. People feel it would be better to be an illiterate, unattached itinerant worker in Turkey than at home in Pakistan? Makes you think.
Lastly, life expectancy is in the low 60s. So, children die, people leave, and everyone dies young. Yet with all these population pressures, you'd think the place was going to empty out. In fact, Pakistan's population is predicted to double in 25 years, to over 300 million people. Ka-boom!! The numbers are just scary. What are all these people going to do? How will they eat? And with the Himalayan glaciers melting, where will they get water? It is just too awful to think about. More tragedies on the way.
Have a great day.
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Greetings from Pakistan
I'm writing this as I finish, I hope, my last few days of over a year spent in Pakistan. I've been meaning to put a blog together and a good friend finally inspired me to do it. I can't think of a better forum for me and I may go back and post some old stuff I have written in teh past few years, out of date though it may be.
I hope to put up a post everyday, so let's see how I can keep up.
Pakistan has been a great adventure. A friend asked what I will miss most about this place after I leave, and, once I got past the people I have known and friends I have made here, I didn't have much else to say. Sensing my uncertainty, he asked what I would remember most or what made the biggest impression. Of course, this was me, so it took a while for me to figure it out.
I first said I would miss having so much to do, always feeling like the job was getting away from me. Then I thought that what was really so memorable was all there was to do for EVERYBODY. This place is just so far behind on the development curve, it is pitiable. Arguably the greatest natural disaster of our lifetimes occurred here in Pakistan on 8 October, 2005. 75,000 people died; not as big as the Christmas 2004 tsunami, but 2.8 million people were left homeless. In October. In the Himalayas!! The fact that there wasn't a second wave of deaths, from exposure, from malnutrition, from disease, is nothing short of miraculous. But before all this, on 7 October, 2005, every infrastructure system in the region was stretched to the breaking point or beyond: electric, water, sewage, transport, education, health care and on and on. Not one was adequate to the demands placed on it. And the eathquake destroyed what little capacity they had. And yet, these people survived and continue on, making the most out of the bad hand that life and Allah have dealt them. And never, not once, did anyone beg me for anything, or demand that I MUST give them a job or relief supplies. Not once. The people of Pakistan have an admirable pride and self-reliance that you don't see just everywhere. In fact, this was the first for me in my career.
But they are poor. The biggest impression I leave Pakistan with is, by far, the poverty. I know, I know, this is South Asia, where the poverty is of a breed and character unique in the world, but good lord this place has some desperately poor people. I've seen people eating out of SEWERS, fer cryin' out loud, and, not to make a Monty Python skit about it, they were the ones lucky enough to have sewers to eat out of.
And for wrenching, grinding, dehumanizing poverty? On the list of places and occupations that qualify you to claim you live in "Hell on Earth", the bonded laborers in Pakistani brick kilns move pretty much to the head of the line as far as I am concerned. These people are, for all intents and purposes, slaves, with no rights of any kind. And as bad as it is for them, imagine being a kid there. Field laborers in the agricultural provinces are routinely brutalized by their overlords. Women and girls are raped, men beaten,jailed, even murdered if they complain. It's horrible, and nothing is done to end it. As if you could. With no skills, no land, no means of support, and of course no social, economic, political or legal rights, building the social infrastructure of all of the above will cost billions and take years. Just the time to build the schools and train the teachers for all the kids is a half decade process. And who's going to buy the books and uniforms and keep the lights on and all the rest? And the schools only take them for a couple hours a day for a few months of the year. What would they all do? Who's gonna watch out for them? Teach them about money and managing it and applying for a job and giving them job training and buying and maintaining property and all the rest. Not to say these people are stupid or incapable of dealing with all these things, far from it. But good lord, you can't take a person out of chains, pat them on the back and say, "you're free" and expect them to be able to cope with the myriad challenges of life, challenges that frankly, many people I know with a lot more money, education and privileges have a hard time dealing with, too.
OK, It's late. I'll try to get back to this tomorrow. Here's hoping I can keep this up!!
I hope to put up a post everyday, so let's see how I can keep up.
Pakistan has been a great adventure. A friend asked what I will miss most about this place after I leave, and, once I got past the people I have known and friends I have made here, I didn't have much else to say. Sensing my uncertainty, he asked what I would remember most or what made the biggest impression. Of course, this was me, so it took a while for me to figure it out.
I first said I would miss having so much to do, always feeling like the job was getting away from me. Then I thought that what was really so memorable was all there was to do for EVERYBODY. This place is just so far behind on the development curve, it is pitiable. Arguably the greatest natural disaster of our lifetimes occurred here in Pakistan on 8 October, 2005. 75,000 people died; not as big as the Christmas 2004 tsunami, but 2.8 million people were left homeless. In October. In the Himalayas!! The fact that there wasn't a second wave of deaths, from exposure, from malnutrition, from disease, is nothing short of miraculous. But before all this, on 7 October, 2005, every infrastructure system in the region was stretched to the breaking point or beyond: electric, water, sewage, transport, education, health care and on and on. Not one was adequate to the demands placed on it. And the eathquake destroyed what little capacity they had. And yet, these people survived and continue on, making the most out of the bad hand that life and Allah have dealt them. And never, not once, did anyone beg me for anything, or demand that I MUST give them a job or relief supplies. Not once. The people of Pakistan have an admirable pride and self-reliance that you don't see just everywhere. In fact, this was the first for me in my career.
But they are poor. The biggest impression I leave Pakistan with is, by far, the poverty. I know, I know, this is South Asia, where the poverty is of a breed and character unique in the world, but good lord this place has some desperately poor people. I've seen people eating out of SEWERS, fer cryin' out loud, and, not to make a Monty Python skit about it, they were the ones lucky enough to have sewers to eat out of.
And for wrenching, grinding, dehumanizing poverty? On the list of places and occupations that qualify you to claim you live in "Hell on Earth", the bonded laborers in Pakistani brick kilns move pretty much to the head of the line as far as I am concerned. These people are, for all intents and purposes, slaves, with no rights of any kind. And as bad as it is for them, imagine being a kid there. Field laborers in the agricultural provinces are routinely brutalized by their overlords. Women and girls are raped, men beaten,jailed, even murdered if they complain. It's horrible, and nothing is done to end it. As if you could. With no skills, no land, no means of support, and of course no social, economic, political or legal rights, building the social infrastructure of all of the above will cost billions and take years. Just the time to build the schools and train the teachers for all the kids is a half decade process. And who's going to buy the books and uniforms and keep the lights on and all the rest? And the schools only take them for a couple hours a day for a few months of the year. What would they all do? Who's gonna watch out for them? Teach them about money and managing it and applying for a job and giving them job training and buying and maintaining property and all the rest. Not to say these people are stupid or incapable of dealing with all these things, far from it. But good lord, you can't take a person out of chains, pat them on the back and say, "you're free" and expect them to be able to cope with the myriad challenges of life, challenges that frankly, many people I know with a lot more money, education and privileges have a hard time dealing with, too.
OK, It's late. I'll try to get back to this tomorrow. Here's hoping I can keep this up!!
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